The
U.S. intelligence community now thinks Russia may have embarked on its
military buildup in Syria because Moscow believes Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad may not be able to hang onto power and
it wants to position itself to back a proxy if the regime were to collapse. It is a view shared by the Pentagon, Defense officials told CNN.
This
is one theory,
but there is not a firm conclusion within the Obama
administration about why Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending
aircraft, tanks and missiles into the wartorn country, several senior
U.S. officials told CNN.
On Monday on
the sidelines of the United Nations, President Barack Obama is scheduled
to meet with Putin for the first time in nearly a year to discuss the
latter's plans in Syria.
Russian fighter jets enter Syria with transponders off
If
the Russians assure the United States that they are planning only to
fight ISIS and not prop up ally al-Assad, that could lead to a new round
of bilateral discussions on how to avoid military mishaps as both
countries have forces operating there.
The
Russians have not been clear about whether they will join the U.S.-led
fight against ISIS or prop up al-Assad -- which the United States
objects to, as America has declared the Syrian leader must go.
The
meeting comes as the United States is watching initial intelligence
indicators that the Russians also may be setting up some type of
operation in Baghdad to coordinate their efforts with Iraqi, Iranian and
even Syrian elements.
Iraq has denied
any such operation, but several U.S. officials told CNN they believe a
coordination effort is being assembled, though its mission and status
remain unclear. Fox News first reported the development.
Pentagon waiting on White House
Military
and defense officials told CNN that after the Obama-Putin meeting, they
are hoping the Obama administration will quickly make some decisions
about U.S. cooperation with rebels in northern Syria, because they see a
rare opportunity that could easily be missed.
"We
have the ability to do serious damage," the official said, adding that
key U.S. commanders are anxious to see the White House make decisions
about the way ahead. Another senior U.S. military official expressed
frustration that those decisions have not already been made.
Among
them are whether to supply Syrian rebels with ammunition and how to
adjust the train-and-equip program of Syrian rebels, which is now
largely deemed a failure.
U.S.
intelligence still sees al-Assad's collapse as likely to be several
months away, though he has been considerably weakened over this year
after losing of significant territory and directing an army that is
increasingly demoralized.
The United
States is trying to assess whether figures in Syria still exist who
might be able to step in should al-Assad fall, a senior U.S. official
told CNN, but for now doesn't see a clear leader or dissident who could
garner enough support inside Syria to take power.
The
United States is concerned about the preservation of basic social
structures and services that still exist in Damascus should al-Assad
fall, since the regime's implosion could open the door to a humanitarian
disaster if ISIS or al Qaeda-affiliated militias were to move in.
Preserving
Damascus is seen as so critical to the potential rebuilding of Syria
that the United States wants to ensure the Russian military does not
destroy key infrastructure in any future bombing campaign.
U.S. officials said that for now no Russian combat flights have begun, but that that could change at any time.
